Exchange Rates and Insulation in Emerging Markets

Flexible exchange rates and insulation : A reexamination

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting

Regime Switching Interest Rates and Fluctuations in Emerging Markets∗

Many emerging economies have experienced current account reversals followed by large declines in economic activity. These sudden stops are reflected in their real interest rates, which alternate between tranquil times, when the level is relatively low and stable, and crises, during which interest rates are higher and more volatile. We embed an estimated regime switching process of interest rate...

Illusory profitability of technical analysis in emerging foreign exchange markets

Weconduct an extensive examination of the profitability of technical analysis in ten emerging foreign exchange markets. Studying 25,988 trading strategies for emerging foreign exchangemarkets, we find that the best rules can sometimes generate an annualmean excess return of more than 30%. Based on standard tests, we find hundreds to thousands of seemingly significant profitable strategies. Howe...

Real Exchange Rates , Preferences , and Incomplete Markets : Evidence , 1961 - 2001

A wide range of international macroeconomic models link the real exchange rate to a ratio of marginal utilities. These include models based on non-traded goods, and those with a variety of frictions including trading costs and pricing to market. We examine this link empirically, while allowing the marginal utility of consumption to depend on government expenditure, leisure, real money balances,...